- China propels Iran and Saudi Arabia to a truce

Dazed by the signing of a non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia in October 1939, which triggered off World War II, Britain's wily war horse Winston Churchill is believed to have described the geopolitical maneuver as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

However, wiser minds have always perceived diplomacy as an un-decipherable conundrum. The latest and most notable move on the diplomatic chessboard came to light on Friday, March 10 when China brokered a truce between long-time rivals Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran.

The nitty-gritty of the rapprochement was being assiduously worked upon in considerable secrecy for several months. Four days of final negotiations in Beijing resulted in the declaration on March 10. Significantly, not a whisper had escaped from the Bamboo Curtain during the tortuous parleys.

Brief backgrounder

Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was assaulted following a dispute over the execution of a Shia Muslim cleric in Saudi Arabia. Though the two countries have been battling for supremacy in the Islamic world for long, the cleric's execution proved to be the last straw on the camel's back. Armed confrontation using proxies too has been a regular feature since then.

Riyadh had accused Tehran of orchestrating drone attacks on its hydro-carbon facilities and oil tankers in 2019 though the latter had denied the charges. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi tribals belonging to the minority Zaydi Shia sect have been time and again blamed for launching attacks on Saudi Arabia and UAE using drones, ballistic and cruise missiles.

The proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran has impacted even Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and even the Balkans and Caucasus. Beijing announced its winning gambit on March 10. Riyadh and Tehran are expected to resume diplomatic ties in a couple of months.

Western media muted

Though expectedly underplayed by the Western media, the development has propelled China towards the status of the world's policeman, a position hitherto held by the US, sans challenge. China's successful foray into the politics of West Asia (called the Middle East by the West) is of pivotal significance for the world.

With the West Asian success under its belt, Beijing, geo-strategists believe, will now focus on the Russia-Ukraine war. Success on that front may embolden Chinese President Xi Jinping to justifiably lay claim to the mantle of the sole global statesman.

National interest real driver

Today's cyber world has made access to plain news a child's game. Let us try to look at things from a different perspective.
China must have faced formidable challenges in resolving West Asia's thorniest geo-political mess.

• Saudi Arabia and Iran were the two antagonists in the long-standing imbroglio. Though theocratic Islamic states, both are poles apart. Saudi Arabia, as the name goes, is an Arab nation, with 84 % of its population believing in the strict Wahabi school of Sunni Islam. The country also houses the most reversed Islamic sites of Mecca & Medina. on the contrary, Iran has Persian origins with 80.7 % of its citizens being Shias. Iran has been holding elections but the country's supreme leader belongs to the Shia clergy. Ali Khamenei has been holding the exalted position since 1989. Saudi Arabia is led by a hereditary monarchy.
• The two clashing countries were brought to the table negotiationg with success by China, which is officially an atheist, single party(Communist), and authoritarian state. We are witnessing the weird spectacle of an irreligious country successfully negotiating peace between two deeply religious and thecratic countries. Only authoritarianism and totalitarianism are common to the three stakeholders.

It is, therefore, obvious that the hard-core national interests drive geopolitics and geo-strategy. Existential realities for survival and expansion take precedence over faith and ideology. Countries need petro-products, technology, cheap capital, accommodating allies, and of course, greater global influence. But rhetoric will continue to live.

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